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Now that we officially have a new U.S. Senator in our home state, I thought I'd share a little of the analysis that we've been doing in our spare time.  At first, I hesitated posting this, but believe the lessons learned here the last two months will have vast implications this fall in every corner of our country.

First some stats:

• 149 (42%) of 352 cities and towns in the state voted for Obama in 2008 and Scott Brown in January 2010;
• 7 of the 10 towns (and 14 out of 20) that showed the most significant swing (from +Obama to +Brown) are in Worcester County;
• The average swing in these towns is -42 points for the Democrats;
• Of the 8 towns (out of 20) that swung most heavily toward Brown that we have census info on -- only 2 towns are above the state average for education level -- Mansfield and Franklin;
• Turnout in Suffolk County (i.e., Boston) dropped by .9 since 2008, while turnout in Middlesex County increased by .8.  The other counties were slightly more stable relative to the 2008 presidential election.

While much has been written about the “Scott Brown independent voter” – the lesson here is that there's no such person.  There are two distinct kinds of Scott Brown independents.  I refer to them below as “Jack the Plumber” and “Don the VP” (think Don Draper).

"Jack the Plumber" – he’s between 35 and 50 years old, lives in a small town/city in Worcester County/Central Massachusetts (i.e., Southbridge, Athol, Winchedon, Fitchburg, Clinton, etc.), is less educated than the average Bay Stater and works (or used to) in manufacturing or the trades.  “Jack” was among the most hopeful in 2008 (probably voting for Obama while holding his nose) -- and now is among the angriest, most disappointed voters in the state.  On average, there was a 40-point swing in the town where “Jack” lives from 2008 to 2010 against the Democratic candidate (Coakley).  “Jack” is easy to spot – we know him well in Massachusetts and he has was the recipient of a fair amount of attention in Governor Patrick's State of the State:

"The toll this global economic crisis has taken on people here at home has only served to make me even more determined.  I meet people every day, and I see the anxiety in their faces.  I hear their stories of lost jobs or lost homes, of lost retirement accounts or lost hope.  I know they are stressed not just for themselves, but because there are still kids to be educated and parents to be cared for.  I met a grandmother at the Career Center in Lynn this month who told me about moving her son and daughter and their kids, 9 of them strong, into her home because they're out of work and strapped for cash.  Now she has lost her job.  She's not asking for much, just a chance to work to provide for her family, and a little help holding on until she can make her own way.  Meanwhile, like so many other citizens, she is feeling powerless against forces beyond her control.  This is not the American Dream she counted on.  And it is not the American Dream we will accept."

The second type of independent is "Don the VP” – someone who I believe is largely ignored by both Democrats and Republicans today.  "Don" lives closer to Boston, along the 128/495/Middlesex corridor.  “Don" -- who is in his 40's is well-educated, drives a foreign car, lives in a 3 to 4-BR house with a home equity loan -- and is beyond concerned that his job at a large financial, health care, technology or construction company may soon get eliminated.   Many of his friends and co-workers are collecting unemployment with dim prospects.  “Don” has survived the previous rounds of job cuts, but there is no guarantee he will survive the next round.  He, his wife and his children have been living with this fear and insecurity for over a year now. His fear has turned to anger.  He never ever thought he'd be concerned about the basics in life – the last few years he was pulling in $150,000 no sweat…  "Don" has now had to cut back on kids' camps, dining out, a new car for his wife, Red Sox games and will not go on summer vacation this year.  College tuition is a huge question mark.  He's visibly angry that his million-dollar house is worth $650k and Beacon Hill and Washington seem concerned about everyone (those without health care, auto industry, Wall St, small business, troops) except him. Deficit spending, and the sense that government is not acting as responsibly as his family, drives this anger.   “Don" is having a few more drinks than he used to and lives in a town like Norwood, Andover, Burlington, Marblehead, Waltham, Reading, Winchester and Melrose.

In "Don's" towns there was a 30-point swing away from the Democrats in the January special election -- and he seeks technocratic, not ideological leadership (i.e., he voted for Obama to really change government, make it run better, more efficiently), regardless of the party from which it comes.

So far, heading into the Fall, I am not optimistic about youth participation -- which for Democrats, makes these two groups even more important to success in November.

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